5 thoughts on “Political Paper High School of Economic Crisis”
Floyd
From the change of people's festivals, the impact of the economic crisis
The financial crisis originated from the United States, and Americans also first realized the taste of deserted festivals. Americans, who have always been used to their hands, must cover their pockets when purchasing, and retail merchants have spent 40 years of the most bleak "holiday season". The sigh of Belsden's acquisition has not been dispersed, and the century -old brand Lehman brothers collapsed. Even insurance companies such as AIA are not insurance. They need government blood transfusion to survive. Recently, the US subprime mortgage crisis has deteriorated. The impact of the global financial system has gradually expanded and divergent, and it has begun to conduct to the real economy. The "World Economic Yellow Paper" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on December 25, 2008 pointed out that the global financial crisis will not evolve into the Great Depression in the 1930s. However, people cannot deny that it is also the most serious financial crisis worldwide since the Great Crisis of the 1930s. Therefore, despite the severe challenges of a century, China still launched various response measures under the premise of fully evaluating. "The story of a happy family is basically the same, but the unfortunate family has its own unfortunate." Russia's observation of life is also applicable to the current financial crisis. The financial crisis we have experienced in common with the adjustment of history, but its personality will determine the development and ending of the crisis different from the previous example. So far, the root cause of the US financial crisis has not yet been eliminated, and the crisis may still deteriorate again, and the impact on the Chinese economy may continue to appear. Some people say that if the US -Europe and Japan economy should be stable in 2009, it should be the third, fourth quarter, or even later, then the impact of the financial crisis on developing countries may have a climax in 2009. With the spread of the financial crisis globally, the international economy has shown a trend of further deterioration, "deleveraging" (see reading retrieval) has become a popular vocabulary in economists. In fact, the world may underestimate the impact of the financial crisis, including the US government. Obama's election and the US government's big market rescue plan, etc., failed to stop bleeding in the market, and it was not optimistic about how long the crisis would last. On September 15, 2008, the closure of Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, has become a turning point in the subprime mortgage crisis, and may even become an iconic incident in the history of world economic history. Prior to this, the intensity of the subprime mortgage crisis was generally equivalent to the sum of the 1980 U.S. Storage and Loan Association crisis (see reading retrieval for details) and the East Asian financial crisis in 1997. Since then, the world has faced the worst financial crisis in the world since 1929 to 1933. Although the subprime mortgage crisis burst into the United States, the adjustment of the financial market in China and Hong Kong, China is significantly greater than the adjustment of the US market. In addition to the reasons for the outflow of funds caused by deleveraging Deep concerns about the crisis. It in the US financial community, the consensus on the severity of the subprime crisis is a century -old encounter, usually only compared with the Great Depression (see reading retrieval for details). In the third quarter of Britain in the third quarter of Britain in 2008, GDP fell 0.5%year -on -year. It was the first quarterly economic growth since 1992. It was only one step away from the official economic recession (GDP continued to decline for two consecutive quarters), and the unemployment rate created a new high. The 225 index plunged 486.18 points on October 27, 2008, and the closing position of 7162.90 points was the lowest since 1982, with a decrease of 6.36%; a group It is enough to explain the grim of the current world economic situation. In economic crisis is the inevitable result of capitalist production methods. From the perspective of the economic cycle theory, it may have entered the stage of the decline in the long wave of Kantraiov (see reading retrieval for details). If this judgment is indeed, then the world will face economic depression for several years, or even nearly 10 years. Regardless of whether it is currently entering the long wave of Cantraiyov's long waves, it is certain that this crisis will not end quickly, and the remaining waves will last for at least several years. For a period of time, the global stock market has been forced to play a thrilling roller coaster game with the US stock market. Driven by panic psychology, a large number of cash behaviors have further disrupted the global financial market, while the risk aversion of the dollar has continued to expand liquidity black holes (see reading retrieval). At the same time, due to the price of secondary bonds and their derivatives, or the U.S. investment bank that developed these derivatives, a large number of foreign financial institutions holding these bonds and products have a large number of bad debts, the balance sheet of the balance sheet rapidly deteriorates. It's almost a few. If there is no external fund injection, their fate is at stake. At present, in the case of global investors trying to avoid risks, financial institutions have become extremely difficult to raise financing through bonds, stock issuance or notes. This is undoubtedly a disaster for financial institutions that are used to issuing new debt and old debt. According to relevant statistics, the 30 largest financial institutions in Europe will have $ 1 trillion in debt in the next 15 months and face serious re -financing risks. The impact cannot underestimate China's industrial adjustment period will be extended The influence of China's real economy due to the financial crisis, first began in the foreign trade department. Although China's export structure upgrade and the diversification of export markets can reduce the impact of changes in external demand on trade to a certain extent, higher export dependence will make it difficult for the Chinese economy to be alone in the case of weak consumption in the United States. In this context, how to find a new manufacturing industrial development model of China's manufacturing industry has become difficult to avoid. The loan crisis is a global financial turmoil. Whether it is emerging markets or developed countries, it has adopted to varying degrees. This time, the most direct European and American Europe and the United States are China's main export target market, and some emerging markets that have been impacted by financial storms in 1997 were still Chinese competitors to a certain extent. Therefore, the financial crisis itself was only 1929 to 1933. The Great Depression of the year can be compared. Compared with the financial turmoil in 1997, China's economy has been affected by international environmental impacts. This includes a larger capital flow scale, larger foreign exchange reserves, and higher dependence on exports. The export dependence of China's economy was only 18%in 1998, and rose to about 38%by 2007. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, China's exports to the United States have fallen significantly, but the rise in European exports has made up for this fall. At present, the RMB has increased significantly on the euro, and the European economy has begun to enter fatigue. The significant decline in exports in 2009 has become a final game. Of course, the contribution of exports to China's current economic growth is about two percentage points. The most severe challenge facing China's macro policy is to find new growth points from domestic demand to replace exports to a negative impact on economic growth. In addition, the sharp decline in China's capital market may be a reflection of the mutually dependent relationship between the Sino -US economy, and it is a expected report that the US subprime mortgage crisis may have a great impact on the Chinese economy. In terms of evaluation of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's real economy, from the current situation, there may be a certain underestimation. Especially in the context of the increasingly close economic interaction between China and the United States, due to the differences between China and the American industrial structure, the industrial structure that the United States is based on service industries is relatively rapid in response to economic adjustment, and China's manufacturing -based industrial structure is based on the manufacturing industry. The adjustment of subprime impact may take longer. The economic growth in the pressure of slowing in domestic demand still shows a decline The narration: As early as the Asian financial crisis, my country proposed to expand domestic demand, but it has not made much breakthrough in 10 years. Facing the financial crisis, expanding domestic demand has once again become the primary strategic choice, but this domestic demand is not the other domestic demand. When we repeat the strategy of ten years ago, expanding domestic demand is no longer the expansion of domestic demand for pure GDP expansion, and its tone has been transformed into structural adjustment through total expansion. Compared with the financial turmoil in 1997, the current pressure on domestic demand in the subprime mortgage crisis is even greater. In the process of expanding domestic demand, the active real estate market occupies a very important position. Is when the Asian financial turmoil should be for the Asian financial turmoil in 1998, China's real estate market is still in its infancy, and the role of domestic demand is still in the stage of promotion and formation. In the current real estate market, a very strong atmosphere of watching and adjustment has begun, which directly restricts the expansion of domestic demand. This time the real estate adjustment is the first adjustment since the formation of the real estate market in China, and how the impact on the Chinese economy has yet to be observed. The last relatively large real estate market adjustment was in 1993 in local areas such as Hainan and Beihai, and it was basically speculation at the land level. It did not form such a huge industrial group. Considering that the real estate market accounts for 25%of the investment in fixed assets, more than 100 association industries in front and back, and a high level of housing price income ratio are also at a high level. With the sharp decline in foreign demand, the national real estate market adjustment will be even more increased. Difficulty of domestic demand expansion. From the perspective of the fluctuations of macroeconomic growth, the current macroeconomic is particularly worthy of attention. It is the falling speed of economic growth very fast. From 12.2%of the second quarter of 2007, to 9%in the third quarter of 2008, although it is considered in the fourth quarter In the Olympic factor and policy factors that stimulate economic growth, from the overall trend, it still shows a rapid decline. The market environment change some policy tools are difficult to reflect in time The dual rate, adjust export tax refund, 100 billion yuan investment plan ... The effect of monetary policy depends on whether it can be truly implemented, exerting its due due The effect of the effect, and the problem of time stagnation of monetary policy cannot be ignored. At the same time, the multi -polarization of the world's currency provides reform ideas for the long -term handling of the RMB exchange rate in China, the international guess of the RMB. Compared with the financial turmoil in 1997, the policy effects of some policy tools used to deal with the financial storm in 1997 may be discounted in the new market environment. It, from the perspective of large -scale infrastructure construction that may be used, while the central government maintains a good financial situation, the local financial situation is not optimistic. In particular, the rapid decline in land revenue has reduced the use of financial resources that can be used by local governments to stimulate economic growth. The mobilization of the central government's financial resources requires a long decision -making process, which makes the task that prevents the economy from falling too fast to the monetary policy. However, it is also worth noting that the effect of monetary policy in fighting against economic recession is very limited, and the effect of stimulating domestic demand is also very limited. For emerging market countries, the crisis first comes from the slowdown of import demand in Europe and the United States, rather than the collapse of the banking system. If the spread from the virtual economy to the real economy is the conduction model of the financial crisis, then due to the downturn of the real economy, it is likely to be a severe test that emerging market countries will face. In addition, due to the rise in account deficit in some countries, the depreciation pressure of local currency may also lead to severe fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and fugitives, thereby inducing the currency crisis. In economic history, many scholars associated the Great Depression in 1930 with the golden standard system that was generally implemented by various countries at that time. They believed that the currency tightening in the 1930s was combined with the international gold standard system, which greatly enhanced the power of currency impact. The subsequent facts also proved that some countries that took the lead in giving up the gold standard finally came out earlier and achieved economic recovery. The reason is that after getting rid of the gold standard, a country can more freely implement the expansion monetary policy and make a salary at the bottom of the kettle. . Before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, most East Asian countries, including China, linked their currencies to the US dollar. Therefore, there was a "East Asian US dollar" in the region. the result of. In this global financial crisis, the "Global US dollar" played the role of the main communicationer. When many US financial institutions fell into crisis, due to the shortage of credit in the domestic market, they had to return a lot from the world to the US dollar, which exacerbated the contradiction of lack of global liquidity. Although the conduction mechanisms of these crises are different, one thing is common, that is, they are bundled together in a nearly rigid way. From the perspective of China, a more flexible currency basket is needed, a non -single currency market and the currency market. In short, it is to realize the multi -polarization of international currency, and naturally also includes the internationalization of the RMB. It may face a more severe test to respond to the financial crisis. It is a difficult "war" In emerging industrialization countries is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of economic globalization. It has adverse effects on the global economy. The choice of US economic policy on other countries, especially emerging industrialized countries, will be the most significant. This means to a certain extent that my country ’s response to the financial crisis is not only a long -lasting war, but also a tough battle. The loan crisis has developed to this day. The essence has evolved into a comprehensive credit tightening. It is that banks cannot borrow money from each other, and banks are even more cherished by enterprises and residents. Therefore, continuously injecting liquidity to the market and injection of financial institutions, coupled with the global joint rate cuts, seems to have initially eased credit. But the history is not difficult to find that the Great Depression in the 1930s was far from being imagined. The so -called Roosevelt New Deal has no effect on the disease to get rid of the disease, and repeated twists and turns can experience it. Byanke mentioned in his book "Great Depression" that the outbreak of the bank crisis in October 1930 made all the efforts since 1929 to the east. The financial panic in 1931 faded the dawn of the first revealed recovery. By March 1933, the entire economic and financial system was in the valley. After the long system reconstruction from 1933 to 1935, the economy was heavy and recovered. However, the crisis from 1937 to 1938 interrupted this process again. In a sense, the outbreak of World War II only made the United States finally out of depression, which got rid of the lack of demand for manufacturing and the high unemployment rate. As far as the current crisis has a global impact, it is comparable to the Great Depression. Financial crocodile Saros asserted that this was the worst financial crisis in the world in the past 60 years, and former Chairman Greenpan President Green Pan was exclaimed by the US Federal Reserve Commission. Therefore, it is a difficult "war" to deal with the financial crisis, and any idea of "fighting for one battle" is too optimistic. China, Russia, India, South Korea and other emerging market economies are likely to bear the severe test of the financial crisis in the next stage. Read retrieval The deleveraging: deleveraging refers to the process of reducing the use of financial leverage in the company or individuals, that is, the process of "borrowing" the money that was originally used by various ways (or tools) Essence "Delaid" of a single company or institution will not have much impact on the market and economy. However, if most institutions and investors are forced or proactively spit out the money of "borrowing" the past leverage method, its impact will be extraordinary. The latest point of view of Bill Gross, the king of US bonds, is that the process of deleveraging in the United States has led to the overall decline in the country's three major asset categories (stocks, bonds, real estate) prices. Once the deleveraging process is entered, including risk spreads, liquidity spreads, market volatility, and even terminal spills will increase, asset prices will be impacted by this. And this process will not be one -way, but affect each other and strengthen each other. The US Storage and Loan Association Crisis: The US Storage and Loan Association is a government background organization and a non -bank savings institution in the United States. It is long for the purpose of absorbing deposits and providing low -interest housing loans for people with medium and low income. It is very long. Occupied in the financial institution's mortgage market for a period of time. However, under the influence of the US interest rate marketization of the United States in the 1970s, the Storage and Loan Association had a serious asset -liability period and interest rate incomplete matching phenomenon. In order to help the Storage and Loan Association through the difficulties, the "Savings Agency Act" in 1982 expanded its operating power. However, more freedom has caught it in speculative abyss. The rapid growth strategy of high risk has caused a large amount of funds to be precipitated on speculative real estate loans and garbage bonds. Nearly 50%of the storage and loan associations lost their solvency, 80%of them were facing losses, the squeezing trend spread rapidly, and finally the government came forward to crisis. During the Great Depression: From 1929 to 1933, the United States had a Great Depression. The main manifestations were: production and prices declined sharply, the stock market exploded, and the unemployment rate was high. British economist Kanes believes that the main reason for the Great Depression is that the total demand is insufficient, which is caused by the reduction of investment opportunities and the decline in investment demand, and fiscal policy is an important means to solve the problem of insufficient demand. French economist Friedmann believes that the Fed's policy has a significant responsibility for the Great Depression. During the Great Depression, some banks closed down, which was very likely to cause a chain reaction. The Federal Reserve should intervene in time to restore public confidence. Clabiev long waves, also known as the Kantlaliv cycle, were proposed by Soviet economist Konzlayov. He believes that the development of capitalist economy includes three long waves, and its span is 50 to 60 years. During the long wave cycle (expanded long waves), the business cycle still exists, but the prosperity period is relatively long, the amplitude is relatively obvious, the decline and depression period are relatively short, less serious; On the contrary, the scenery time in the business cycle is short and small, and the crisis is deeper. Llimal black hole: The so -called liquidity black hole refers to a phenomenon that the financial market suddenly loses liquidity in a short period of time. Generally speaking, liquidity black holes are very easy to appear in those homogeneous markets, or in the lack of diversified markets such as information, viewpoints, investment portfolios, transaction entities, and risk management. Excessive liquidity can easily lead to asset price bubbles, becoming the fuse that causes liquidity black holes. The accumulation of asset price bubbles will inevitably accumulate the adverse factors that induce liquidity black holes at the same time.
The economic crisis also brought a great impact on our country. The direct shallow manifestation is:
The instability of the stock market, the development of pillar industries such as real estate, automobile manufacturing and sales, and the densely created coastal labor -intensive small and medium -sized enterprises, the export volume has decreased, the migrant workers return the wave of waves, And other issues.
This from this is the appearance of many deep -level contradictions that have gradually accumulated in the 30 years of reform and opening up in my country. There are several aspects:
First of all, the anti -risk ability of my country's economic structure is still insufficient. For a long time, 99%of the total number of Chinese companies has played a great role in promoting my country's economic development. However, it is too rough to manage its management. Only about 1%of the forefront of economic and social development, and about 20%of the basic synchronization with economic and social development, and 79%of enterprises in the face of cruel reality and passive response. It has been frequently affected by factors such as economic crisis this year. In the first half of the year, 67,000 small and medium -sized enterprises with a certain scale in the country closed down. For a while, small and medium -sized enterprises seemed to enter the "severe winter period." As a result, it is difficult to resist the impact of the economic crisis. The company's growth method is rough. The high -speed growth is mainly based on the large investment of labor and energy. Stress also directly affects the quality and level of enterprises. Second, the level of enterprise industry is relatively low. SMEs are concentrated in a large number of extensive labor and dense industries that are simple in technology, small investment, easy to imitate, and easy to enter, and it is difficult to resist the impact of the economic crisis.
This brought by the high foreign trade dependence of low -end products: and the existence of high trade dependence, which also aggravated my country's unfavorable factors in responding to the global economic crisis.
In order to cope with this problem, it is urgently needed to be adjusted. It is my country's small and medium -sized enterprises in China to achieve a re -reshuffle in this time. In the process of adjustment And the principles of "leadership" and "leadership" are also adjusted according to the specific conditions of various regions, provinces and cities in my country. By reduce the vicious competition in different regions of China, and reduce unnecessary energy loss and cost loss.
The more critical contradiction exposed is farmers, rural, agricultural and rural market issues. One of the direct impacts of this crisis is a large number of migrant workers returning to their hometown. In China, the number of farmers is 940 million, and the number of migrant workers is about 230 million. This number is 80%of the American population, which is nearly double the Russian population. Work. As for the consumption potential of rural China, we cannot count, because it is too huge and can only estimate that if no one consumes 10,000 yuan per year, the consumption of the whole year can reach nearly 10 trillion yuan, which is 12 of my country's GDP. But such a big market is because farmers cannot play its due role. Instead, my country has become a country that has seriously relying on foreign trade exports. This must not let us reflect on us.
The problem solving must start with the change of the household registration system. Because the development of the countryside is basically because of the discriminatory system of the household registration system. For a long time, the government thinks that the state of changing rural areas is simply to change the education of rural areas, but the result is because the rural areas have not been developed. The talents who come out of the countryside have become the first person to abandon the countryside. Such a vicious circle has not only academic qualifications, just academic qualifications People are unwilling to return to the countryside, and even a person with a little labor is willing to stay in the countryside, which makes the progress of rural development. Therefore, we must change the unfairness of the imaging household registration system, and at the same time increase investment in rural areas, especially infrastructure, in order to develop rural development and expand the market in rural areas.
This should be established at the same time. In this crisis, a large number of migrant workers returned to their hometowns. Imagine if these migrant workers had lost their land, they would become the biggest instability factor. If a greater impact crisis occurs, more migrant workers return home, then they will return to their hometowns. It may cause social instability, so it must be prevented.
Third, it is more conservative in land policy. Judging from the current situation, my country cannot bear the existence of a large number of farmers who have no land and no work. Therefore, it is necessary to make arrangements for migrant workers in front of the crisis.
It, in terms of foreign trade, my country must do a good job of facing new trade protectionism in Europe and the United States. The specific method is to continue to expand the domestic market, opening up the international markets of countries in different regions, and talk about export objects to Asia, Africa and Latin. Reduce trade dependence on European and American countries.
On the other hand, the product output is shifted to capital output, technical output and manpower output. Especially with special significance, it is human output. This requires education and diplomatic capabilities in various aspects. On the one hand, it can slow down the employment pressure of my country in China. On the other hand, foreign exchange can be charged, and at the same time increase my country's international influence.
I answers the question, here is the New Year! Happy Chinese New Year! Intersection Intersection Intersection Intersection Intersection
The shyness in this year, so make a good virtue of the Chinese nation in advance. This is also the excellent virtue of the Chinese nation. Shocked, just right.
Plan 1: Try not to meet with friends as much as possible, because the bag does not have Chairman Mao's avatar. If a friend wants to invite, you can work too busy and still work in the company. It is already a "writer" (the meaning of sitting at home). In this way, it does not spend money, and it can be mixed with a good reputation, how good!
The plan 2: Every year the Spring Festival, it is a matter of nature to return to his hometown to honor your parents, but this year is too special. For Jiang Dong's father, so to my parents, this year, give you cash, you can buy whatever you want, don't be willing to spend. In fact, there is no way to give the elderly in cash. In previous years, gifts were purchased. Generally, there are thousands of cash. It is more than a thousand, there is no way, who told us so bleak this year? Ask the adults of parents to understand the hardships of their juniors.
Program 3: Go home and tell your family that saving is the traditional virtue of the Chinese nation. We must further carry forward the vast, especially wearing The family's expenses in clothing are very huge. Now they must find the lost tradition of saving the tradition and find the feeling of patching. Therefore, it is the best time to learn the party’s excellent work and life style. It may be denied, because there is no status at home, it has created this inevitable result. Hey, do your best, the unlucky economic environment, and the unlucky rake ears.
Plan 4: Give up the planning plan of buying a house. With the three generations of family members, the small apartment can reflect the warmth of the home. The house has been living for a long time, and I am too familiar with this area environment. I can't bear to leave here. In this way, I think that the elder in our family will definitely say that your TMD will know the reason for the editing. I do n’t want my house to buy a deposit. Intersection Hey, I can't help it, Chairman Mao's avatar is too far away from me.
The plan 5: Today's New Year's Eve is ready to eat skewers, not in the restaurant to set up a Chinese food. The reason for explaining is that I have not eaten skewers for many years. On a special day like night meals, when you eat the shadow of the past, the feeling will be more beautiful. Well, do you think, skewers one by one, the number is slowly counted, how good! At the same time, natural gas stoves also have the effect of warm body. If you eat hot pot, it is boring. The dishes are small, there are no crickets, and restlessness! The pass rate of this New Year's Eve dinner is not high, but everything is possible, try it, who told me no rice.
The plan 6: During the Spring Festival, I ca n’t go out to go shopping. I want to use the Spring Festival to rest for a few days at home, so I simply watch TV at home and watch magazines. Because going shopping is to send warm activities to retailers. There is no warm delivery without Mimi. It is best to stay at home. Take a good rest to prepare for the Spring Festival in 2010. However, watching TV at home can not be too long. Because of this damage to vision, the most important thing is that the electricity cost is too expensive.
This is the Spring Festival in 2009. Are you ready?
In luck, you have a cold, letting the old men follow the medicine, which hurts the Spring Festival this year. But this is good, and now implement a great weight loss plan!
Pegal "Christmas Madman" Economic Crisis
The 44 -year -old Electric Gongwang Parker, Melksham, Britain, Cenging Christmas, so he was called "Christmas madman". But affected by the economic crisis, he decided to get frugal this year.
Paks have celebrated Christmas on July 14, 1994. There are many meals, champagne, and Christmas cards. As of October this year, "I have used 37 electric ovens and watched the Queen’ s Christmas speech. 23 video recorders. " In addition, he also sent himself 235,000 Christmas cards, and drank 5,110 bottles of champagne. He ate 5,110 turkey, 94,000 Passion Pars, 80,000 potatoes, 11.7. Ten 10,000 balls.
Parker now pays £ 150 (about 227 US dollars) for Christmas meals every week. However, due to the recent economic downturn, he had to consider frugal festivals, "but I will try my best to prevent the economic crisis from destroying the celebration."
"The postage is too expensive now," Parker said. He planned to take the card home by himself. Although the champagne could not be less, he could be changed to drink a bottle every two days. “今年我只会买1棵圣诞树，往年都是2棵。往常我会烤14磅（约合6．3公斤）重的火鸡，但是现在我只买9磅（约合4公斤）的小Turkey. "
Thenest Christmas this year, Parker intends to give himself a new suit as a Christmas gift. This gift is also" simple "compared to last year. The gift to himself is a Messendes sedan.
From the change of people's festivals, the impact of the economic crisis
The financial crisis originated from the United States, and Americans also first realized the taste of deserted festivals. Americans, who have always been used to their hands, must cover their pockets when purchasing, and retail merchants have spent 40 years of the most bleak "holiday season". The sigh of Belsden's acquisition has not been dispersed, and the century -old brand Lehman brothers collapsed. Even insurance companies such as AIA are not insurance. They need government blood transfusion to survive. Recently, the US subprime mortgage crisis has deteriorated. The impact of the global financial system has gradually expanded and divergent, and it has begun to conduct to the real economy. The "World Economic Yellow Paper" released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on December 25, 2008 pointed out that the global financial crisis will not evolve into the Great Depression in the 1930s. However, people cannot deny that it is also the most serious financial crisis worldwide since the Great Crisis of the 1930s. Therefore, despite the severe challenges of a century, China still launched various response measures under the premise of fully evaluating.
"The story of a happy family is basically the same, but the unfortunate family has its own unfortunate." Russia's observation of life is also applicable to the current financial crisis. The financial crisis we have experienced in common with the adjustment of history, but its personality will determine the development and ending of the crisis different from the previous example. So far, the root cause of the US financial crisis has not yet been eliminated, and the crisis may still deteriorate again, and the impact on the Chinese economy may continue to appear. Some people say that if the US -Europe and Japan economy should be stable in 2009, it should be the third, fourth quarter, or even later, then the impact of the financial crisis on developing countries may have a climax in 2009.
With the spread of the financial crisis globally, the international economy has shown a trend of further deterioration, "deleveraging" (see reading retrieval) has become a popular vocabulary in economists. In fact, the world may underestimate the impact of the financial crisis, including the US government. Obama's election and the US government's big market rescue plan, etc., failed to stop bleeding in the market, and it was not optimistic about how long the crisis would last. On September 15, 2008, the closure of Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, has become a turning point in the subprime mortgage crisis, and may even become an iconic incident in the history of world economic history. Prior to this, the intensity of the subprime mortgage crisis was generally equivalent to the sum of the 1980 U.S. Storage and Loan Association crisis (see reading retrieval for details) and the East Asian financial crisis in 1997. Since then, the world has faced the worst financial crisis in the world since 1929 to 1933.
Although the subprime mortgage crisis burst into the United States, the adjustment of the financial market in China and Hong Kong, China is significantly greater than the adjustment of the US market. In addition to the reasons for the outflow of funds caused by deleveraging Deep concerns about the crisis.
It in the US financial community, the consensus on the severity of the subprime crisis is a century -old encounter, usually only compared with the Great Depression (see reading retrieval for details). In the third quarter of Britain in the third quarter of Britain in 2008, GDP fell 0.5%year -on -year. It was the first quarterly economic growth since 1992. It was only one step away from the official economic recession (GDP continued to decline for two consecutive quarters), and the unemployment rate created a new high. The 225 index plunged 486.18 points on October 27, 2008, and the closing position of 7162.90 points was the lowest since 1982, with a decrease of 6.36%; a group It is enough to explain the grim of the current world economic situation.
In economic crisis is the inevitable result of capitalist production methods. From the perspective of the economic cycle theory, it may have entered the stage of the decline in the long wave of Kantraiov (see reading retrieval for details). If this judgment is indeed, then the world will face economic depression for several years, or even nearly 10 years. Regardless of whether it is currently entering the long wave of Cantraiyov's long waves, it is certain that this crisis will not end quickly, and the remaining waves will last for at least several years. For a period of time, the global stock market has been forced to play a thrilling roller coaster game with the US stock market. Driven by panic psychology, a large number of cash behaviors have further disrupted the global financial market, while the risk aversion of the dollar has continued to expand liquidity black holes (see reading retrieval). At the same time, due to the price of secondary bonds and their derivatives, or the U.S. investment bank that developed these derivatives, a large number of foreign financial institutions holding these bonds and products have a large number of bad debts, the balance sheet of the balance sheet rapidly deteriorates. It's almost a few. If there is no external fund injection, their fate is at stake.
At present, in the case of global investors trying to avoid risks, financial institutions have become extremely difficult to raise financing through bonds, stock issuance or notes. This is undoubtedly a disaster for financial institutions that are used to issuing new debt and old debt. According to relevant statistics, the 30 largest financial institutions in Europe will have $ 1 trillion in debt in the next 15 months and face serious re -financing risks.
The impact cannot underestimate China's industrial adjustment period will be extended
The influence of China's real economy due to the financial crisis, first began in the foreign trade department. Although China's export structure upgrade and the diversification of export markets can reduce the impact of changes in external demand on trade to a certain extent, higher export dependence will make it difficult for the Chinese economy to be alone in the case of weak consumption in the United States. In this context, how to find a new manufacturing industrial development model of China's manufacturing industry has become difficult to avoid.
The loan crisis is a global financial turmoil. Whether it is emerging markets or developed countries, it has adopted to varying degrees. This time, the most direct European and American Europe and the United States are China's main export target market, and some emerging markets that have been impacted by financial storms in 1997 were still Chinese competitors to a certain extent. Therefore, the financial crisis itself was only 1929 to 1933. The Great Depression of the year can be compared.
Compared with the financial turmoil in 1997, China's economy has been affected by international environmental impacts. This includes a larger capital flow scale, larger foreign exchange reserves, and higher dependence on exports. The export dependence of China's economy was only 18%in 1998, and rose to about 38%by 2007. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, China's exports to the United States have fallen significantly, but the rise in European exports has made up for this fall. At present, the RMB has increased significantly on the euro, and the European economy has begun to enter fatigue. The significant decline in exports in 2009 has become a final game. Of course, the contribution of exports to China's current economic growth is about two percentage points. The most severe challenge facing China's macro policy is to find new growth points from domestic demand to replace exports to a negative impact on economic growth. In addition, the sharp decline in China's capital market may be a reflection of the mutually dependent relationship between the Sino -US economy, and it is a expected report that the US subprime mortgage crisis may have a great impact on the Chinese economy. In terms of evaluation of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's real economy, from the current situation, there may be a certain underestimation. Especially in the context of the increasingly close economic interaction between China and the United States, due to the differences between China and the American industrial structure, the industrial structure that the United States is based on service industries is relatively rapid in response to economic adjustment, and China's manufacturing -based industrial structure is based on the manufacturing industry. The adjustment of subprime impact may take longer.
The economic growth in the pressure of slowing in domestic demand still shows a decline
The narration: As early as the Asian financial crisis, my country proposed to expand domestic demand, but it has not made much breakthrough in 10 years. Facing the financial crisis, expanding domestic demand has once again become the primary strategic choice, but this domestic demand is not the other domestic demand. When we repeat the strategy of ten years ago, expanding domestic demand is no longer the expansion of domestic demand for pure GDP expansion, and its tone has been transformed into structural adjustment through total expansion.
Compared with the financial turmoil in 1997, the current pressure on domestic demand in the subprime mortgage crisis is even greater. In the process of expanding domestic demand, the active real estate market occupies a very important position.
Is when the Asian financial turmoil should be for the Asian financial turmoil in 1998, China's real estate market is still in its infancy, and the role of domestic demand is still in the stage of promotion and formation. In the current real estate market, a very strong atmosphere of watching and adjustment has begun, which directly restricts the expansion of domestic demand. This time the real estate adjustment is the first adjustment since the formation of the real estate market in China, and how the impact on the Chinese economy has yet to be observed. The last relatively large real estate market adjustment was in 1993 in local areas such as Hainan and Beihai, and it was basically speculation at the land level. It did not form such a huge industrial group. Considering that the real estate market accounts for 25%of the investment in fixed assets, more than 100 association industries in front and back, and a high level of housing price income ratio are also at a high level. With the sharp decline in foreign demand, the national real estate market adjustment will be even more increased. Difficulty of domestic demand expansion. From the perspective of the fluctuations of macroeconomic growth, the current macroeconomic is particularly worthy of attention. It is the falling speed of economic growth very fast. From 12.2%of the second quarter of 2007, to 9%in the third quarter of 2008, although it is considered in the fourth quarter In the Olympic factor and policy factors that stimulate economic growth, from the overall trend, it still shows a rapid decline.
The market environment change some policy tools are difficult to reflect in time
The dual rate, adjust export tax refund, 100 billion yuan investment plan ... The effect of monetary policy depends on whether it can be truly implemented, exerting its due due The effect of the effect, and the problem of time stagnation of monetary policy cannot be ignored. At the same time, the multi -polarization of the world's currency provides reform ideas for the long -term handling of the RMB exchange rate in China, the international guess of the RMB. Compared with the financial turmoil in 1997, the policy effects of some policy tools used to deal with the financial storm in 1997 may be discounted in the new market environment.
It, from the perspective of large -scale infrastructure construction that may be used, while the central government maintains a good financial situation, the local financial situation is not optimistic. In particular, the rapid decline in land revenue has reduced the use of financial resources that can be used by local governments to stimulate economic growth. The mobilization of the central government's financial resources requires a long decision -making process, which makes the task that prevents the economy from falling too fast to the monetary policy. However, it is also worth noting that the effect of monetary policy in fighting against economic recession is very limited, and the effect of stimulating domestic demand is also very limited. For emerging market countries, the crisis first comes from the slowdown of import demand in Europe and the United States, rather than the collapse of the banking system. If the spread from the virtual economy to the real economy is the conduction model of the financial crisis, then due to the downturn of the real economy, it is likely to be a severe test that emerging market countries will face.
In addition, due to the rise in account deficit in some countries, the depreciation pressure of local currency may also lead to severe fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and fugitives, thereby inducing the currency crisis. In economic history, many scholars associated the Great Depression in 1930 with the golden standard system that was generally implemented by various countries at that time. They believed that the currency tightening in the 1930s was combined with the international gold standard system, which greatly enhanced the power of currency impact. The subsequent facts also proved that some countries that took the lead in giving up the gold standard finally came out earlier and achieved economic recovery. The reason is that after getting rid of the gold standard, a country can more freely implement the expansion monetary policy and make a salary at the bottom of the kettle.
. Before the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, most East Asian countries, including China, linked their currencies to the US dollar. Therefore, there was a "East Asian US dollar" in the region. the result of. In this global financial crisis, the "Global US dollar" played the role of the main communicationer. When many US financial institutions fell into crisis, due to the shortage of credit in the domestic market, they had to return a lot from the world to the US dollar, which exacerbated the contradiction of lack of global liquidity. Although the conduction mechanisms of these crises are different, one thing is common, that is, they are bundled together in a nearly rigid way. From the perspective of China, a more flexible currency basket is needed, a non -single currency market and the currency market. In short, it is to realize the multi -polarization of international currency, and naturally also includes the internationalization of the RMB. It may face a more severe test to respond to the financial crisis. It is a difficult "war"
In emerging industrialization countries is also one of the biggest beneficiaries of economic globalization. It has adverse effects on the global economy. The choice of US economic policy on other countries, especially emerging industrialized countries, will be the most significant. This means to a certain extent that my country ’s response to the financial crisis is not only a long -lasting war, but also a tough battle.
The loan crisis has developed to this day. The essence has evolved into a comprehensive credit tightening. It is that banks cannot borrow money from each other, and banks are even more cherished by enterprises and residents. Therefore, continuously injecting liquidity to the market and injection of financial institutions, coupled with the global joint rate cuts, seems to have initially eased credit.
But the history is not difficult to find that the Great Depression in the 1930s was far from being imagined. The so -called Roosevelt New Deal has no effect on the disease to get rid of the disease, and repeated twists and turns can experience it.
Byanke mentioned in his book "Great Depression" that the outbreak of the bank crisis in October 1930 made all the efforts since 1929 to the east. The financial panic in 1931 faded the dawn of the first revealed recovery. By March 1933, the entire economic and financial system was in the valley. After the long system reconstruction from 1933 to 1935, the economy was heavy and recovered. However, the crisis from 1937 to 1938 interrupted this process again. In a sense, the outbreak of World War II only made the United States finally out of depression, which got rid of the lack of demand for manufacturing and the high unemployment rate. As far as the current crisis has a global impact, it is comparable to the Great Depression. Financial crocodile Saros asserted that this was the worst financial crisis in the world in the past 60 years, and former Chairman Greenpan President Green Pan was exclaimed by the US Federal Reserve Commission. Therefore, it is a difficult "war" to deal with the financial crisis, and any idea of "fighting for one battle" is too optimistic. China, Russia, India, South Korea and other emerging market economies are likely to bear the severe test of the financial crisis in the next stage.
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The deleveraging: deleveraging refers to the process of reducing the use of financial leverage in the company or individuals, that is, the process of "borrowing" the money that was originally used by various ways (or tools) Essence "Delaid" of a single company or institution will not have much impact on the market and economy. However, if most institutions and investors are forced or proactively spit out the money of "borrowing" the past leverage method, its impact will be extraordinary.
The latest point of view of Bill Gross, the king of US bonds, is that the process of deleveraging in the United States has led to the overall decline in the country's three major asset categories (stocks, bonds, real estate) prices. Once the deleveraging process is entered, including risk spreads, liquidity spreads, market volatility, and even terminal spills will increase, asset prices will be impacted by this. And this process will not be one -way, but affect each other and strengthen each other.
The US Storage and Loan Association Crisis: The US Storage and Loan Association is a government background organization and a non -bank savings institution in the United States. It is long for the purpose of absorbing deposits and providing low -interest housing loans for people with medium and low income. It is very long. Occupied in the financial institution's mortgage market for a period of time. However, under the influence of the US interest rate marketization of the United States in the 1970s, the Storage and Loan Association had a serious asset -liability period and interest rate incomplete matching phenomenon. In order to help the Storage and Loan Association through the difficulties, the "Savings Agency Act" in 1982 expanded its operating power. However, more freedom has caught it in speculative abyss. The rapid growth strategy of high risk has caused a large amount of funds to be precipitated on speculative real estate loans and garbage bonds. Nearly 50%of the storage and loan associations lost their solvency, 80%of them were facing losses, the squeezing trend spread rapidly, and finally the government came forward to crisis.
During the Great Depression: From 1929 to 1933, the United States had a Great Depression. The main manifestations were: production and prices declined sharply, the stock market exploded, and the unemployment rate was high. British economist Kanes believes that the main reason for the Great Depression is that the total demand is insufficient, which is caused by the reduction of investment opportunities and the decline in investment demand, and fiscal policy is an important means to solve the problem of insufficient demand. French economist Friedmann believes that the Fed's policy has a significant responsibility for the Great Depression. During the Great Depression, some banks closed down, which was very likely to cause a chain reaction. The Federal Reserve should intervene in time to restore public confidence.
Clabiev long waves, also known as the Kantlaliv cycle, were proposed by Soviet economist Konzlayov. He believes that the development of capitalist economy includes three long waves, and its span is 50 to 60 years. During the long wave cycle (expanded long waves), the business cycle still exists, but the prosperity period is relatively long, the amplitude is relatively obvious, the decline and depression period are relatively short, less serious; On the contrary, the scenery time in the business cycle is short and small, and the crisis is deeper.
Llimal black hole: The so -called liquidity black hole refers to a phenomenon that the financial market suddenly loses liquidity in a short period of time. Generally speaking, liquidity black holes are very easy to appear in those homogeneous markets, or in the lack of diversified markets such as information, viewpoints, investment portfolios, transaction entities, and risk management. Excessive liquidity can easily lead to asset price bubbles, becoming the fuse that causes liquidity black holes. The accumulation of asset price bubbles will inevitably accumulate the adverse factors that induce liquidity black holes at the same time.
The economic crisis also brought a great impact on our country. The direct shallow manifestation is:
The instability of the stock market, the development of pillar industries such as real estate, automobile manufacturing and sales, and the densely created coastal labor -intensive small and medium -sized enterprises, the export volume has decreased, the migrant workers return the wave of waves, And other issues.
This from this is the appearance of many deep -level contradictions that have gradually accumulated in the 30 years of reform and opening up in my country. There are several aspects:
First of all, the anti -risk ability of my country's economic structure is still insufficient. For a long time, 99%of the total number of Chinese companies has played a great role in promoting my country's economic development. However, it is too rough to manage its management. Only about 1%of the forefront of economic and social development, and about 20%of the basic synchronization with economic and social development, and 79%of enterprises in the face of cruel reality and passive response. It has been frequently affected by factors such as economic crisis this year. In the first half of the year, 67,000 small and medium -sized enterprises with a certain scale in the country closed down. For a while, small and medium -sized enterprises seemed to enter the "severe winter period." As a result, it is difficult to resist the impact of the economic crisis. The company's growth method is rough. The high -speed growth is mainly based on the large investment of labor and energy. Stress also directly affects the quality and level of enterprises. Second, the level of enterprise industry is relatively low. SMEs are concentrated in a large number of extensive labor and dense industries that are simple in technology, small investment, easy to imitate, and easy to enter, and it is difficult to resist the impact of the economic crisis.
This brought by the high foreign trade dependence of low -end products:
and the existence of high trade dependence, which also aggravated my country's unfavorable factors in responding to the global economic crisis.
In order to cope with this problem, it is urgently needed to be adjusted. It is my country's small and medium -sized enterprises in China to achieve a re -reshuffle in this time. In the process of adjustment And the principles of "leadership" and "leadership" are also adjusted according to the specific conditions of various regions, provinces and cities in my country. By reduce the vicious competition in different regions of China, and reduce unnecessary energy loss and cost loss.
The more critical contradiction exposed is farmers, rural, agricultural and rural market issues. One of the direct impacts of this crisis is a large number of migrant workers returning to their hometown. In China, the number of farmers is 940 million, and the number of migrant workers is about 230 million. This number is 80%of the American population, which is nearly double the Russian population. Work. As for the consumption potential of rural China, we cannot count, because it is too huge and can only estimate that if no one consumes 10,000 yuan per year, the consumption of the whole year can reach nearly 10 trillion yuan, which is 12 of my country's GDP. But such a big market is because farmers cannot play its due role. Instead, my country has become a country that has seriously relying on foreign trade exports. This must not let us reflect on us.
The problem solving must start with the change of the household registration system. Because the development of the countryside is basically because of the discriminatory system of the household registration system. For a long time, the government thinks that the state of changing rural areas is simply to change the education of rural areas, but the result is because the rural areas have not been developed. The talents who come out of the countryside have become the first person to abandon the countryside. Such a vicious circle has not only academic qualifications, just academic qualifications People are unwilling to return to the countryside, and even a person with a little labor is willing to stay in the countryside, which makes the progress of rural development. Therefore, we must change the unfairness of the imaging household registration system, and at the same time increase investment in rural areas, especially infrastructure, in order to develop rural development and expand the market in rural areas.
This should be established at the same time. In this crisis, a large number of migrant workers returned to their hometowns. Imagine if these migrant workers had lost their land, they would become the biggest instability factor. If a greater impact crisis occurs, more migrant workers return home, then they will return to their hometowns. It may cause social instability, so it must be prevented.
Third, it is more conservative in land policy. Judging from the current situation, my country cannot bear the existence of a large number of farmers who have no land and no work. Therefore, it is necessary to make arrangements for migrant workers in front of the crisis.
It, in terms of foreign trade, my country must do a good job of facing new trade protectionism in Europe and the United States. The specific method is to continue to expand the domestic market, opening up the international markets of countries in different regions, and talk about export objects to Asia, Africa and Latin. Reduce trade dependence on European and American countries.
On the other hand, the product output is shifted to capital output, technical output and manpower output. Especially with special significance, it is human output. This requires education and diplomatic capabilities in various aspects. On the one hand, it can slow down the employment pressure of my country in China. On the other hand, foreign exchange can be charged, and at the same time increase my country's international influence.
I answers the question, here is the New Year! Happy Chinese New Year! Intersection Intersection Intersection Intersection Intersection
The Spring Festival 6th Festival in 2009
The shyness in this year, so make a good virtue of the Chinese nation in advance. This is also the excellent virtue of the Chinese nation. Shocked, just right.
Plan 1: Try not to meet with friends as much as possible, because the bag does not have Chairman Mao's avatar. If a friend wants to invite, you can work too busy and still work in the company. It is already a "writer" (the meaning of sitting at home). In this way, it does not spend money, and it can be mixed with a good reputation, how good!
The plan 2: Every year the Spring Festival, it is a matter of nature to return to his hometown to honor your parents, but this year is too special. For Jiang Dong's father, so to my parents, this year, give you cash, you can buy whatever you want, don't be willing to spend. In fact, there is no way to give the elderly in cash. In previous years, gifts were purchased. Generally, there are thousands of cash. It is more than a thousand, there is no way, who told us so bleak this year? Ask the adults of parents to understand the hardships of their juniors.
Program 3: Go home and tell your family that saving is the traditional virtue of the Chinese nation. We must further carry forward the vast, especially wearing The family's expenses in clothing are very huge. Now they must find the lost tradition of saving the tradition and find the feeling of patching. Therefore, it is the best time to learn the party’s excellent work and life style. It may be denied, because there is no status at home, it has created this inevitable result. Hey, do your best, the unlucky economic environment, and the unlucky rake ears.
Plan 4: Give up the planning plan of buying a house. With the three generations of family members, the small apartment can reflect the warmth of the home. The house has been living for a long time, and I am too familiar with this area environment. I can't bear to leave here. In this way, I think that the elder in our family will definitely say that your TMD will know the reason for the editing. I do n’t want my house to buy a deposit. Intersection Hey, I can't help it, Chairman Mao's avatar is too far away from me.
The plan 5: Today's New Year's Eve is ready to eat skewers, not in the restaurant to set up a Chinese food. The reason for explaining is that I have not eaten skewers for many years. On a special day like night meals, when you eat the shadow of the past, the feeling will be more beautiful. Well, do you think, skewers one by one, the number is slowly counted, how good! At the same time, natural gas stoves also have the effect of warm body. If you eat hot pot, it is boring. The dishes are small, there are no crickets, and restlessness! The pass rate of this New Year's Eve dinner is not high, but everything is possible, try it, who told me no rice.
The plan 6: During the Spring Festival, I ca n’t go out to go shopping. I want to use the Spring Festival to rest for a few days at home, so I simply watch TV at home and watch magazines. Because going shopping is to send warm activities to retailers. There is no warm delivery without Mimi. It is best to stay at home. Take a good rest to prepare for the Spring Festival in 2010. However, watching TV at home can not be too long. Because of this damage to vision, the most important thing is that the electricity cost is too expensive.
This is the Spring Festival in 2009. Are you ready?
In luck, you have a cold, letting the old men follow the medicine, which hurts the Spring Festival this year. But this is good, and now implement a great weight loss plan!
Pegal "Christmas Madman" Economic Crisis
The 44 -year -old Electric Gongwang Parker, Melksham, Britain, Cenging Christmas, so he was called "Christmas madman". But affected by the economic crisis, he decided to get frugal this year.
Paks have celebrated Christmas on July 14, 1994. There are many meals, champagne, and Christmas cards. As of October this year, "I have used 37 electric ovens and watched the Queen’ s Christmas speech. 23 video recorders. " In addition, he also sent himself 235,000 Christmas cards, and drank 5,110 bottles of champagne. He ate 5,110 turkey, 94,000 Passion Pars, 80,000 potatoes, 11.7. Ten 10,000 balls.
Parker now pays £ 150 (about 227 US dollars) for Christmas meals every week. However, due to the recent economic downturn, he had to consider frugal festivals, "but I will try my best to prevent the economic crisis from destroying the celebration."
"The postage is too expensive now," Parker said. He planned to take the card home by himself. Although the champagne could not be less, he could be changed to drink a bottle every two days. “今年我只会买1棵圣诞树，往年都是2棵。往常我会烤14磅（约合6．3公斤）重的火鸡，但是现在我只买9磅（约合4公斤）的小Turkey. "
Thenest Christmas this year, Parker intends to give himself a new suit as a Christmas gift. This gift is also" simple "compared to last year. The gift to himself is a Messendes sedan.
(Xinhua News Agency)
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